Eurovision 2025 Betting Odds: Here is the latest and most comprehensive betting table ahead of Eurovision 2025, just one day before the first semi-final and on the day general rehearsals begin. Who is leading? These are the significant changes in the betting odds table!
With just one day remaining before the opening of the first semi-final of Eurovision 2025 in Basel, Switzerland, we present the most up-to-date and comprehensive betting table as of today. In recent days, several changes have occurred in the rankings of participating countries, as rehearsals have shifted many aspects of the overall picture. The complete betting odds table is later in the article!
Who Is Leading the Betting Table?
- In first place: Sweden with the song “Bara bada bastu” performed by KAJ, who remains the clear favorite to win with a 37% chance of victory, despite a slight drop of 2% after the rehearsals. This is a particularly high figure, reminiscent of Sweden’s dominance in 2023 (44%) and Ukraine’s in 2022 (42%). Unlike last year, this year there is a clear favorite at the top of the table.
- In second place: Austria with “Wasted Love” by JJ – showing a slight increase from 16% to 22% chance of winning.
- In third place: France with “Maman” by Louane – holding a 7% chance of victory.
Major Changes in the Betting Table Since the Start of Rehearsals
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Switzerland has risen to ninth place from fifteenth. It is not yet known what elements the performance will include, but it appears to be a strong act.
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Belgium has climbed to fifth place from eighth. This is a surprising rise; it is not clear what elements the performance will feature, and most fans have given the act harsh reviews.
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The Netherlands dropped from fourth to seventh place, following a rehearsal that did not meet fan expectations and failed to retain many of the elements from the music video that initially attracted viewers.
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Czechia fell from sixth to tenth place, due to a low-quality rehearsal and critical reviews from the fan community.
Qualification Odds for the Eurovision 2025 Final
Semi-Final 1 Qualification Odds
| Rank | Country | Qualification Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 95% |
| 2 | Estonia | 94% |
| 3 | Ukraine | 94% |
| 4 | Netherlands | 94% |
| 5 | Albania | 93% |
| 6 | Cyprus | 86% |
| 7 | Norway | 84% |
| 8 | Poland | 83% |
| 9 | Belgium | 73% |
| 10 | San Marino | 52% |
| —— | ————- | ——————— |
| 11 | Slovenia | 46% |
| 12 | Iceland | 39% |
| 13 | Azerbaijan | 34% |
| 14 | Portugal | 17% |
| 15 | Croatia | 17% |
The top ten countries in this semi-final are considered the most likely to advance to the final, with Sweden, Estonia, Ukraine, and the Netherlands leading the pack. Notably, San Marino is currently on the threshold, with a 52% chance of qualifying, while Slovenia and Iceland are just below the cutoff. Portugal and Croatia are seen as the least likely to advance, with only a 17% chance each.
Semi-Final 2 Qualification Odds
| Rank | Country | Qualification Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finland | 94% |
| 2 | Austria | 94% |
| 3 | Israel | 94% |
| 4 | Malta | 85% |
| 5 | Czechia | 82% |
| 6 | Australia | 80% |
| 7 | Lithuania | 77% |
| 8 | Greece | 75% |
| 9 | Luxembourg | 60% |
| 10 | Serbia | 55% |
| —— | ————- | ——————— |
| 11 | Ireland | 51% |
| 12 | Latvia | 43% |
| 13 | Denmark | 43% |
| 14 | Armenia | 42% |
| 15 | Montenegro | 13% |
| 16 | Georgia | 12% |
According to the betting odds, Israel is among the top three countries most likely to qualify from the second semi-final, with a 94% chance. Finland and Austria are also strong favorites. The competition for the tenth qualifying spot is especially close, with Serbia, Ireland, Latvia, and Denmark all within a few percentage points of each other. At the bottom of the table, Montenegro and Georgia have the lowest chances of advancing.
Credit: eurovisionworld.com
The Significance of Eurovision Betting Odds
The betting odds for Eurovision 2025 are based on numerous individuals wagering money on countries they believe might win the upcoming contest. With all songs now revealed, the betting table has transformed into an expectation table, much of which will materialize while some predictions may prove inaccurate. At this stage, we can clearly identify the favorites to win the competition and which countries have little chance of victory. While it’s possible to roughly gauge where each country might rank in Eurovision, we should anticipate both positive and negative surprises.
Historical Accuracy of Eurovision Betting Odds
Betting odds don’t always accurately predict Eurovision outcomes and should be taken with a grain of salt. However, they often reflect public taste and frequently hit the mark. Let’s look at recent years:
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2024: Croatia led with 20% winning odds but finished second. Switzerland, ranked fourth, won.
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2023: Sweden led with 40% odds and indeed won. Finland, ranked second, secured second place.
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2022: Ukraine led and won, while the UK and Spain surprised everyone by finishing second and third despite lower odds.
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2021: Italy won despite being ranked fifth in odds, while Switzerland and Malta underperformed their high odds.
Eurovision 2025: This will be Switzerland’s 65th participation in the Eurovision Song Contest. Switzerland joined the competition in 1956, being one of the seven founding countries, and has won three times over the years. Its most recent victory was at the last Eurovision in 2025, with Nemo’s song “The Code.” This win follows Switzerland’s previous victory in 1988 with the song “Ne partez pas sans moi,” performed by international singer Céline Dion.
