Strategic placement, betting predictions, or pure luck? The fourth article in “The Eurovision Formula” series explores how the running order can impact a contestant’s chances of victory. Article by Ilay Gaist and Noy Yehoyada.
Every year, with the revival of the Eurovision season, thousands of viewers, fans, and professional jurors attempt to crack the code how to win at Eurovision: What is the secret formula that leads a country to first place? Do audiences tend to favor songs performed early in the show, or do they remember those closing the night? In this fourth installment of “The Eurovision Formula” series, we dive deep into the historic data to explore one of the most significant factors: Does a song’s position in the running order actually affect its final score?
Allocation of Running Order: Luck, Choice, or Planning?
Until 2013, performance positions in the Eurovision final were determined randomly by draw. Each participating country drew its position in the performance sequence. However, since 2013, the system has changed — once finalists are confirmed, producers now determine the performance order strategically to create a dynamic, varied flow for the broadcast, balancing different musical styles. Despite producers’ intentions to maintain variety and pacing, many fans and analysts continue to believe that performing later significantly increases a country’s chances of winning.
The Winning Spot: Lucky Number 17
A deep analysis of Eurovision history reveals a curious fact: the performance spot that has led to the most wins is number 17, with seven victories throughout the years — three of them credited to Ireland. Among those who performed as entry number 17 and won are Vicky Leandros (Luxembourg, 1972), Johnny Logan (Ireland, 1980), Linda Martin (Ireland, 1992), Eimear Quinn (Ireland, 1996), Lordi (Finland, 2006), Marija Serifovic (Serbia, 2007), and Loreen (Sweden, 2012).
Song Number 9: The Fortress of France, Austria, and Switzerland
Close behind is position number 9, yielding six victories — two each for Switzerland and Austria. Switzerland first triumphed in 1956 with Lys Assia, who also became the contest’s first-ever winner. Its second win came from Celine Dion in 1988, who performed ninth. Austria’s victories with song number 9 came in 1966 with Udo Jurgens and more recently in 2025 with JJ.
France also found success from the ninth slot, winning in 1962 with Isabelle Aubret, and nearly repeating the feat in 1991 — tying for first place but losing to Sweden on a tiebreaker.
The Great Shift: Modern Diversity in Winning Positions
In recent years, producers have managed to diversify victory positions, preventing patterns from solidifying. In the first half, songs performing early, such as positions 9 (won in 2023 and 2025), 11 (won in 2014 and 2017), and 12 (won in 2019 and 2022), have proven strong contenders — alongside rarer successes from song number 10 (winner in 2015).
In the second half, the numbers 21 (2016 and 2024), and 22 (2010 and 2018), are solid numbers to achieve victories. Even song number 24 joined the winners’ list in 2021. This spread of results shows that producers have balanced suspense and unpredictability more effectively than ever before.
Israel: Victories Across the Map
Israel’s four Eurovision victories demonstrate that success can come from nearly any position. Izhar Cohen won in 1978 as song number 18 out of 20, followed by Gali Atari and Milk and Honey in 1979 as song number 10 out of 19. In 1998, Dana International triumphed as song number 8 out of 25, and Netta Barzilai claimed Israel’s latest victory in 2018 as song number 22 out of 26.
Interestingly, song number 10 had never won any of the first 23 contests — until Israel broke that trend in 1979 on home soil after receiving critical 10 points from Spain, who fell on their sword and gave Israel the second consecutive victory. Watch Israel’s performance from Eurovision 1979:
The Cursed Position: Is Song Number 2 Truly Doomed?
Throughout the contest’s 69-year history, one performance spot has maintained a flawless record — of failure. Song number 2 has never won Eurovision and holds the worst overall results, finishing last in the final or semi-final 15 times. One infamous case was in 1958, when Dutch singer Corry Brokken, the previous year’s winner, performed second on home ground and finished last. The best placements ever achieved from position 2 were a second place for the United Kingdom, in 1965, and three third-place finishes, the most recent in 2024.
Producers are well aware of this harsh statistic. As a result, they frequently assign weaker or less favored entries to the second position, turning it into Eurovision’s “graveyard slot”. Unfortunately for Israel, the country has faced this “curse” several times: out of four second-slot performances in the semi-finals, only one — Boaz Mauda in 2008 — managed to qualify for the final. Israel’s lowest point came in 2007, when the band Teapacks performed second in the semi-final and placed 24th out of 28, achieving in total the 38th place out of 42 countries. Interestingly, the curse seems to apply mainly to adult Eurovision: in Junior Eurovision, it was broken in the very first contest in 2003, when Croatia won while performing second.
The Unlikely Contrast: Songs 16 against 17
Song number 17 is renowned as the most successful performance slot in Eurovision history. Yet, the position immediately before it — song number 16 — has never yielded a victory. While the infamous number 2 curse is often discussed more widely due to its presence in every edition of the contest, position 16 has only existed since Eurovision 1961. Despite this shorter history, it shares the same fate of zero wins. This slot has come close to victory only twice: Ofra Haza (Israel, 1983) achieved second place from position 16, and Germany matched the feat in 1987 with the band Wind. The data is especially intriguing because, despite being in the middle of the show or toward its end, and right beside the luckiest slot of all, song number 16 remains statistically unlucky.
Alongside these two cursed positions, numbers 25 and 26 — introduced in recent years — have also yet to produce any winner. This is somewhat surprising, given that these positions occur at the very end of the night when performances are freshest in the audience’s memory.
Rare Exceptions: Breaking Statistical Norms
Despite the clear statistical advantage of later performance positions, Eurovision always delivers surprises that remind us the rules of the game are not set in stone — ultimately, no statistical fact can guarantee a win if the song isn’t good enough. The rarest victories in the contest’s history have actually come from the earliest slots, which are generally considered very weak:
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The Impossible: Only three countries have achieved the unbelievable — winning while performing first in the running order: the Netherlands in 1975, the United Kingdom in 1976, and Sweden in 1984.
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Single Wins: Four different positions in total have produced just one victory in the contest’s history, including song number 6 (The Netherlands, 1957), song number 7 (United Kingdom, 1969), song number 4 (Turkey, 2003), and song number 23 (Latvia, 2002).
These rare victories prove that no song is doomed from the start — not even the one opening the night — reinforcing the idea that a good song will always find its way to the top.
Conclusions: Running Order Matters, But Isn’t Everything
Analyzing historical data reveals that there is no single “lucky number”. However, there is a clear correlation between performance order and the likelihood of victory. In fact, the final segment of the show has accumulated the majority of wins, with the middle section close behind. According to the statistics, the positions yielding the highest number of victories — adjusted relative to the number of participating countries per edition are:
- performances early in the show: 12 wins.
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performances in the middle of the show: 27 wins.
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performances late in the show: 34 wins.
While there is a notable advantage to performing later, many countries have succeeded from mid-show positions, with early performances trailing far behind — especially in the contest’s early years, despite the recent comeback of song number 9 in 2023 and 2025. The conclusion – a later position can provide an edge, but it is far from a guarantee. A strong song and flawless performance can win from almost any spot in the running order — except for one – song number 2, which has become a position producers jokingly reserve for entries with little chance of success.
Can the Eurovision code really be cracked? In the next and final article in this series, we will combine all the data to reveal the definitive answer to the winning formula question.
Eurovision 2026: The 70th Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Austria, following the country’s third historic win with the song “Wasted Love” performed by JJ. This will be the third time the contest is hosted in Austria, after 1967 and 2015.
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Ilay Gaist is a leading Israeli content creator and writer specializing in the Eurovision Song Contest. He is a well-known commentator with extensive expertise in the contest’s history, rules, and dynamics. His passion for Eurovision drives him to deliver rich, professional, and innovative content to his audience.
Ilay holds a bachelor’s degree in Arabic and has a multilingual background. He also engages in cultural research, with a particular focus on global culinary traditions and the evolution of local cuisines around the world.
