Drama: Finland closes the gap with Israel in the Eurovision 2026 betting tables – a tight battle at the top.
Eurovision 2026‘s betting tables continue to update in real time, with Israel still leading — but by a razor‑thin margin: Noam Bettan stands at 11% chance to win, standing even with Finland, which is closing the gap rapidly and threatening first place. The drama in the Eurovision betting tables intensifies, and the fight at the top becomes closer than ever.
According to data from major European betting sites, Israel remains first, but Finland is breathing down its neck with the same 11% win probability. Finland’s rise comes despite the country not yet officially selecting its Eurovision 2026 song. Nevertheless, Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen’s song “Liekinheitin“, competing in Finland’s UMK, has generated exceptional media buzz in recent days.
Finnish media already reports that it is the leading candidate to win the local national final. A source in Helsinki’s music industry told YLE:
“The reaction to the song is unprecedented. It’s generating international, not just local, discourse”.
Israel Maintains the Lead, but Pressure Mounts
Although the Israeli song has not yet been revealed, Noam Bettan currently holds the top spot in the Eurovision 2026 betting tables. With 11% win chances, Israel leads — yet the tie with Finland points to an open contest.
The figures are based on average odds from several leading European betting platforms, which serve annually as a key indicator of market expectations. Historically, early leaders have not always maintained the top spot — though some have remained near the summit until the final.
Greece Surges to Third Place, Sweden Slips
One of the most notable surprises in the Eurovision 2026 betting tables is Greece. Since “Sing for Greece” songs were revealed, Greece has jumped from 12th to third place. Behind the rise is the song “Ferto” — a humorous entry aimed directly at Eurovision audiences and continuing a style similar to Finland’s ”Cha Cha Cha” from 2023, and Estonia’s ”Espresso Macchiato” from 2025. The track is generating high engagement on social media — a factor that also affects betting trends.
Sweden drops to fourth place after ranking third three weeks ago. Ukraine, which last Saturday chose the song “Ridnym”, remains fifth — showing no significant change following its selection.
Who Has Already Chosen Their Eurovision 2026 song?
As of now, seven countries have revealed their songs for Eurovision 2026:
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Malta, which selected the song “Bella” on January 17th, continues its climb and sits in tenth place.
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Luxembourg, which chose the song “Mother Nature” on January 24th, slightly weakens, dropping from 9th to 11th.
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Cyprus, which unveiled the song “Jalla” three days ago, rises significantly from 23rd to 16th — a strong positive response from bettors.
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Moldova, which selected with his song “Viva, Moldova!“ on January 17th, drops back to 31st place, after earlier rising to 24th.
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Montenegro and the song “Nova Zora” remain at 34th.
Major Ranking Shifts Across Europe
- Bulgaria records the strongest leap: after Dara was selected to represent Bulgaria in Eurovision 2026 — even without an official song — the country climbs from 12th place to 6th.
- Denmark, however, weakens. Before “Dansk Melodi Grand Prix” songs were revealed, it ranked 8th, now, just days before its national final, it sits at 13th.
- Australia rises from 20th to 15th amid rumors about its representative’s identity.
- Croatia drops from 16th to 22nd after disappointment with the songs revealed in “Dora 2026”.
Courtesy of: eurovisionworld.com
The Significance of Early Betting Trends
It is important to emphasize that betting tables are based on public speculation and financial stakes placed by individuals who believe a specific country will win. At this point, the table serves as a map of expectations, much of which is based on historical performance rather than the current year’s musical content. These odds are expected to fluctuate thousands of times before May.
Historically, these trends offer a mixed bag of accuracy. Two years ago, Israel climbed to the top of the odds before its song was even released, eventually finishing fifth in the Grand Final. Conversely, Switzerland took the lead in April and went on to win. In 2022, Ukraine led the odds following the outbreak of war and maintained that momentum to victory. However, in 2021, Malta led for most of the season but ultimately finished seventh, while Italy surged during rehearsals to take the trophy.
Last year, the opening odds placed Israel in fourth. Despite various shifts that saw it drop to seventh in the betting closing prices, the entry actually achieved a remarkable second place finish. Because we are in such an early stage, these tables should be viewed with perspective, though they remain an essential tool for tracking momentum heading into the spring.
Eurovision 2026: The 70th Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Austria, following the country’s third historic win with the song “Wasted Love” performed by JJ. This will be the third time the contest is hosted in Austria, after 1967 and 2015.
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Ilay Gaist is a leading Israeli content creator and writer specializing in the Eurovision Song Contest. He is a well-known commentator with extensive expertise in the contest’s history, rules, and dynamics. His passion for Eurovision drives him to deliver rich, professional, and innovative content to his audience.
Ilay holds a bachelor’s degree in Arabic and has a multilingual background. He also engages in cultural research, with a particular focus on global culinary traditions and the evolution of local cuisines around the world.
