Eurovision 2025 betting: Expectations vs. reality – how the betting odds were upended on the night. Here’s how the table shocked Europe and what happened to the favorites.
As in every year, Eurovision 2025 was surrounded by anticipation regarding the betting odds – especially those updated on the eve of the grand final, which aggregated all major bookmakers’ predictions. Despite meticulous forecasts, the final delivered some resounding surprises, both positive and negative. The gaps between the latest betting rankings and the actual results reveal much about the contest’s dynamics and the reactions of both the audience and the juries.
What Happened to the Favorites?
The only country to meet expectations perfectly was Austria, which was ranked second in the odds and went on to win first place – the bet paid off. In contrast, Israel, with its representative Yuval Raphael, was ranked seventh in the odds but soared to second place in the final results – a leap of five positions that highlights the phenomenal support received from the public.
Estonia also exceeded predictions: from fifth in the odds, it finished third, just as Sweden, which ended up fourth despite being one of the leading contenders and consistently topping the odds. Italy, predicted to finish only 11th, surprised many by climbing to fifth place – a jump of six spots.
The Chasm Between Forecasts and Reality: Who Fell Short of Expectations?
The countries that experienced the largest negative gap between expectations and final results were Denmark, Finland, and Iceland. Denmark, ranked 13th in the odds, finished only 23rd – a drop of ten places. Finland, considered a favorite for victory, placed fourth in the odds, slid to 11th – a real disappointment for its fans. Iceland, predicted to finish 18th, ended up 25th – a fall of seven places.
Switzerland also failed to meet expectations: it was predicted to finish eighth but ultimately ranked tenth, due to 0 points in the televoting. The Netherlands lost six places between its odds ranking and actual result, a letdown after high expectations.
Refreshing Surprises and Countries Making a Comeback
Alongside the disappointments, several countries delivered surprising performances. Latvia, for example, was ranked only 22nd in the odds but finished 13th – a nine-place improvement. Lithuania, considered nearly out of the running before the final, placed 24th, and climbed to 16th. Poland, Germany, and Albania also exceeded expectations, with positive gaps of 7, 3, and a one place respectively.
Even Portugal, ranked 26th and last in the odds, managed to climb five places and finish 21st – a modest but impressive achievement given the predictions.
| Country | Betting Rank | Final Position | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 2nd | 1st | 1 |
| Israel | 7th | 2nd | 5 |
| Estonia | 5th | 3rd | 2 |
| Sweden | 1st | 4th | -3 |
| Italy | 11th | 5th | 6 |
| Greece | 15th | 6th | 9 |
| France | 3rd | 7th | -4 |
| Albania | 9th | 8th | 1 |
| Ukraine | 16th | 9th | 7 |
| Switzerland | 8th | 10th | -2 |
| Finland | 4th | 11th | -7 |
| Netherlands | 6th | 12th | -6 |
| Latvia | 22nd | 13th | 9 |
| Poland | 21st | 14th | 7 |
| Germany | 12th | 15th | -3 |
| Lithuania | 24th | 16th | 8 |
| Malta | 10th | 17th | -7 |
| Norway | 23rd | 18th | 5 |
| United Kingdom | 14th | 19th | -5 |
| Armenia | 25th | 20th | 5 |
| Portugal | 26th | 21st | 5 |
| Luxembourg | 19th | 22nd | -3 |
| Denmark | 13th | 23rd | -10 |
| Spain | 17th | 24th | -7 |
| Iceland | 18th | 25th | -7 |
| San Marino | 20th | 26th | -6 |
How Accurate Are the Betting Odds?
It’s important to note that betting odds are based on many people wagering money on countries they believe could win Eurovision. Once all songs are revealed, the odds table becomes a list of expectations – some of which will materialize, while others will not. At this stage, it’s possible to get a rough picture of the favorites and the least likely contenders. One can estimate where each country might place, but surprises – both positive and negative – are always possible.
Let’s look back: a day before the Eurovision 2024 final, Croatia was in first place with a 42% chance of winning. Israel was second, Switzerland third. Ultimately, Croatia finished second, Israel only fifth, and Switzerland won the contest.
A few hours before the Eurovision 2023 final, Sweden led the odds with a 52% chance of victory. Finland was second, Ukraine third. Sweden did win, Finland took second, but Ukraine finished only sixth. Israel, ranked fourth before the final, ended up in third place.
A few hours before the Eurovision 2022 final, Ukraine topped the odds with an unprecedented 60% chance of winning. The United Kingdom was second and Sweden third. The United Kingdom indeed finished second, but Spain, ranked fourth in the odds, took third place.
On the day of the Eurovision 2021 final, Italy led the odds with a 26% chance of winning, followed by France and Malta. Italy did win, France came second, but Malta dropped to seventh, while Switzerland, ranked fifth in the odds, climbed to third in the final.
In 2019, hours before the contest, The Netherlands led the odds, followed by Australia, Sweden, Switzerland, and Italy. The Netherlands did win, despite the juries favoring North Macedonia and the public giving first place to Norway. Australia, ranked second, finished only ninth. Sweden, ranked third, ended up fifth. Switzerland finished fourth, and Italy – second!
Going further back to the 2018 final, hours before the contest, Eleni Foureira from Cyprus topped the odds, followed by Israel, Ireland, France, and Sweden. In reality, Israel won, Cyprus was second, Ireland crashed to 16th place, France finished 13th, and Sweden dropped to seventh. Austria, which actually finished third and won the jury vote, was only ranked 20th in the odds.
Thus, while betting odds can indicate certain trends, the voting stage always brings plenty of surprises, as Eurovision 2025 has once again demonstrated!
Eurovision 2025: The 69th Eurovision Song Contest was held in Switzerland, following Switzerland’s third victory in history with the song “The Code”, performed by singer Nemo. This was the third time the contest has been hosted in Switzerland, after the competition was held there in 1956 and 1989.
