A day after the first semi-final of Eurovision 2026 kicks off, we’ve looked at what the betting odds are saying about the winner and the second semi final qualifiers.
After a spactacular first semi-final thaat started the Eurovision week yesterday, the eyes are all pointed at tomorrow’s second Semi-Final and the Grand Final on Saturday. What changes in the odds happened after the Qualifiers were announced yesterday? Keep reading to find out.
Who is leading the betting charts?
- In first place: Finland, with the song “Liekinheitin” (in English: “Flamethrower”) performed by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen, is emerging as the clear favorite to win. Following their qualification for the Grand Final, their winning probability rose from 33% to 37%. This figure is still slightly lower than the 39% winning probability held by Sweden, who led at this stage last year. It appears there is a favorite this year, but they are not yet definitive. In other words, the race remains wide open.
- In second place: Greece, with “Ferto” (in English: “Bring it”) by Akillas, currently holds a 15% chance of winning, though it stood at 21% prior to the semi-final.
- In third place: Denmark, with “Før vi går hjem” (in English: “Before we go home”) by Søren Torpegaard Lund, holds an 11% winning probability, remaining stable in third position.
Significant Shifts in the Table
-
France is strengthening slightly, rising from 6% to 7% winning probability, though it remains in fourth place.
- Israel rose one spot to fifth place, though the entry is still in close battle with Australia, currently at sixth place.
-
Moldova continues a significant climb from 16th place at the start of the week to 11th place, with a 2% winning probability.
-
Sweden continues to crash since the start of rehearsals and is currently ranked in 10th place with a 2% chance of winning.
Predictions for the Second Semi-Final
What about the identity of the finalists? This is how the betting tables look one day before the second semi-final. Below is the breakdown of the betting tables regarding the chances of qualifying for the final from each semi-final.
In the first semi-final, the bookmakers correctly predicted 9 out of the 10 qualifiers. Only Belgium, which was ranked 14th, managed to sneak into the final at the expense of Portugal, which had been ranked 10th in qualification odds. Will the second half bring more surprises?
Second Semi-Final Qualification Odds:
-
Denmark – 95%
-
Australia – 95%
-
Ukraine – 93%
-
Romania – 93%
-
Cyprus – 79%
-
Malta – 79%
-
Bulgaria – 77%
-
Albania – 74%
-
Czechia – 73%
-
Norway – 68%
-
Latvia – 46%
-
Switzerland – 42%
-
Armenia – 40%
-
Luxembourg – 36%
-
Azerbaijan – 11%
How accurate are the betting odds?
Looking back at 2018: In the first semi-final, the favorites to qualify according to the odds were Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Greece, Austria, Lithuania, Armenia, and Belgium. In practice, Greece, Armenia, and Belgium remained outside the final. Surprisingly, Albania, which was ranked only 17th in the betting odds, managed to qualify. In the second semi-final, the favorites were Norway, Sweden, Moldova, Ukraine, Australia, Poland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Hungary, and Latvia. In reality, Poland and Latvia did not qualify, while Serbia, ranked only 16th, made it to the final.
And what about 2022? Ukraine was ranked first, Italy second, and Sweden third. In the end, Ukraine indeed won the contest, Italy reached 6th place, and Sweden finished 4th. The United Kingdom and Spain, which were ranked 4th and 5th in the odds, managed to finish the competition in 2nd and 3rd place respectively.
The conclusion is that the betting odds are accurate roughly 70%-80% of the time, so surprises are definitely expected tonight during the reveal of the qualifiers!
You can find the updated table on the betting page of our website!
Finland at Eurovision 2026:
“Liekinheitin” is the title of the song to be performed by Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen, who will represent Finland at Eurovision 2026 in Vienna during the first semi-final on May 12th. The entry was written and composed by the duo together with Vilma Alina, who wrote the song “Sun Sumero” that competed in “UMK 2022”, Antti Riihimäki, and Lauri Halavaara, who already collaborated with them last year on the song “Alina”, which finished third in the 2025 Finnish national selection, and who also wrote “Takatukka”, another entry in this year’s Finnish selection. The song is performed in Finnish.
The song portrays a destructive and addictive relationship, defined by a constant struggle between rational thought and an uncontrollable impulse. In the lyrics, the singer presents the dilemma that the right and sensible choice would be to walk away, yet he finds himself trapped under the spell of the other person, whom he likens to a flamethrower: a powerful figure who burns him emotionally and physically at the same time. The song highlights the painful contrast between intimate nights and emotional distance in public, where his lover behaves as if she does not know him at all, creating a sense of humiliation mixed with intense attraction.
Currently, Finland is ranked 1st on the betting odds ahead of Eurovision 2026, with 30% winning chance!
Eurovision 2026: This will be Finland’s 59th participation in the Eurovision Song Contest. Finland joined the competition in 1961 and achieved its best result in Eurovision 2006, winning the contest with Lordi and their song “Hard Rock Hallelujah”.
Email: [email protected]
Phone: +972-50-9441919
Adi is a reporter and content creator specializing in the Eurovision Song Contest. A devoted fan since 2019, she possesses extensive knowledge of the competition’s history and evolution.
She holds a B.A. in Sociology and Political Science, loves music from all over the world, and is constantly praying for Hungary’s return to the contest.
