Just hours before the first semi-final of Eurovision 2026 kicks off, we’ve looked at what the betting odds are saying about each country’s chances of qualifying for the Grand Final.
Yesterday (Monday), the first two dress rehearsals for the first semi-final took place, followed today by the third and final dress rehearsal, also known as the “Family Show.” This comes just before the first semi-final airs tonight at 21:00 CET. It is worth noting that this year, the jury vote returns to account for 50% of the total score, following three years in which the public vote alone determined the qualifiers.
Most of us are curious to see tonight’s results, and the betting odds may offer a hint of what’s to come. Will these be the final results at the end of the night? Here is all the latest data.
Now, following the initial rehearsals and as the picture becomes clearer ahead of the live shows, have there been any shifts in the betting odds? These are the updated figures as of this hour.
Several changes in the rankings have occurred since the start of the dress rehearsals:
- Finland remains in first place, though the gap between them and second place has narrowed.
- Greece stays in second place, but their winning probability is on the rise.
- Moldova has made a significant leap from 6th to 3rd place.
- Sweden, which was previously tied for 3rd, has dropped to 4th place.
- Serbia climbed from 7th to 5th place.
- Croatia fell from 5th to 6th place.
- Lithuania remains stable in 7th place.
- Poland continues to hold 8th place.
- Montenegro is still expected to qualify for the final, currently sitting in 9th place.
Regarding the countries not expected to qualify:
- Georgia rose from 14th to 10th place, though it likely still won’t be enough to reach the final.
- Portugal dropped from 11th to 11th (out of the qualifying zone).
- Belgium remains in 12th place.
- San Marino climbed one spot from last place to 13th.
- Estonia dropped four spots and is currently finishing last in the semi-final.
How accurate are the betting odds?
Looking back at 2018: In the first semi-final, the favorites to qualify according to the odds were Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Greece, Austria, Lithuania, Armenia, and Belgium. In practice, Greece, Armenia, and Belgium remained outside the final. Surprisingly, Albania, which was ranked only 17th in the betting odds, managed to qualify. In the second semi-final, the favorites were Norway, Sweden, Moldova, Ukraine, Australia, Poland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Hungary, and Latvia. In reality, Poland and Latvia did not qualify, while Serbia, ranked only 16th, made it to the final.
And what about 2022? Ukraine was ranked first, Italy second, and Sweden third. In the end, Ukraine indeed won the contest, Italy reached 6th place, and Sweden finished 4th. The United Kingdom and Spain, which were ranked 4th and 5th in the odds, managed to finish the competition in 2nd and 3rd place respectively.
The conclusion is that the betting odds are accurate roughly 70%-80% of the time, so surprises are definitely expected tonight during the reveal of the qualifiers!
You can find the updated table on the betting page of our website!
Finland at Eurovision 2026:
“Liekinheitin” is the title of the song to be performed by Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen, who will represent Finland at Eurovision 2026 in Vienna during the first semi-final on May 12th. The entry was written and composed by the duo together with Vilma Alina, who wrote the song “Sun Sumero” that competed in “UMK 2022”, Antti Riihimäki, and Lauri Halavaara, who already collaborated with them last year on the song “Alina”, which finished third in the 2025 Finnish national selection, and who also wrote “Takatukka”, another entry in this year’s Finnish selection. The song is performed in Finnish.
The song portrays a destructive and addictive relationship, defined by a constant struggle between rational thought and an uncontrollable impulse. In the lyrics, the singer presents the dilemma that the right and sensible choice would be to walk away, yet he finds himself trapped under the spell of the other person, whom he likens to a flamethrower: a powerful figure who burns him emotionally and physically at the same time. The song highlights the painful contrast between intimate nights and emotional distance in public, where his lover behaves as if she does not know him at all, creating a sense of humiliation mixed with intense attraction.
Currently, Finland is ranked 1st on the betting odds ahead of Eurovision 2026, with 30% winning chance!
Eurovision 2026: This will be Finland’s 59th participation in the Eurovision Song Contest. Finland joined the competition in 1961 and achieved its best result in Eurovision 2006, winning the contest with Lordi and their song “Hard Rock Hallelujah”.
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Writer and content creator at EuroMix, providing cultural insights into the world of Eurovision. Talor is a second-generation Eurovision enthusiast who grew up attending family viewing parties. The 1999 Eurovision, at just five years old, was the event that shaped his love for the contest. He holds a BA degree in Culture – Creation and Production, and his articles combine academic knowledge with a passion for pop and trash, appreciating humor and clever references in the competition’s songs. He specializes in cultural and social analysis, offering in-depth commentary.
Outside the Eurovision world, Talor works as an independent content and media manager.
