Does a temporary withdrawal guarantee Eurovision success? Analysis of Dara, Alexandra Căpitănescu, and historical comebacks.
Dara led Bulgaria to its first-ever victory at Eurovision 2026 with the song “Bangaranga”, following the country’s return from a hiatus. This victory has sparked speculation: could the secret to winning the Eurovision Song Contest be making a surprise comeback after a temporary withdrawal? An analysis of historical data reveals how various countries performed spectacularly upon their return, contrasted with others that failed to achieve success over the years.
A Brief Hiatus and a Top 10 Placement?
Eurovision 2026 serves as proof that nations like Bulgaria, Moldova, and Romania – which returned to the competition after withdrawing primarily due to financial reasons – re-entered the contest with full force, each securing a spot in the top ten.
Romania, for instance, withdrew from Eurovision 2024 due to financial difficulties faced by the Romanian national broadcaster, TVR. After a two-year absence, Romania decided to return, achieving a respectable third place in the Grand Final thanks to Alexandra Căpitănescu, who represented the country this year with the song “Choke me”.
Additionally, Moldova decided to withdraw from the competition last year, despite having already set a date for its national selection final. Moldova also managed to surprise everyone upon its return when Satoshi was selected to represent the nation. He led Moldova with high-energy vibes to an eighth-place finish in the Grand Final with the song “Viva, Moldova”, despite the financial, administrative, and artistic challenges faced on the road to their comeback.
It is impossible not to mention Dara, who conquered the summit with a historic victory for Bulgaria after the country previously decided to withdraw from Eurovision 2023 due to difficulties in meeting the high costs of the contest and other financial reasons.
From Withdrawal to First Place
Bulgaria is not the only country to leave a trail of victory behind after a break from the competition. Throughout Eurovision history, many nations have managed to shock audiences and claim first place immediately following a dramatic withdrawal.
Ukraine, one of the most prominent countries in the Eurovision Song Contest, decided to withdraw in 2015, primarily due to political and security crises at the time. Despite these hardships, Ukraine maintained an interest in returning the following year and competed in Eurovision 2016. Ultimately, Jamala secured another dramatic victory for her country with the song “1944”.
Another country that followed in Ukraine’s footsteps by withdrawing and returning a year later with an intent to win is Portugal. The nation decided not to participate in Eurovision 2016 due to a prolonged lack of success and repeated failures to qualify for the Grand Final. In 2017, Portugal announced its desire to return to the contest, intent on proving its critics wrong. The country demonstrated to all of Europe and the world that it, too, could lift the coveted trophy. This became a reality when Salvador Sobral delivered a historic first victory for his nation with the song “Amar Pelos Dois” (in English: “To Love for Both of Us”).
Returning Only to Crash Out
Alongside these successes, it is important to remember that the hiatus strategy does not always work. In many instances, countries returning from a withdrawal fail to reach high positions and often find themselves stuck deep within the semi-finals.
One notable example is Montenegro, which decided to withdraw in 2020 despite initially confirming its participation that year, prior to the contest’s eventual cancellation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Montenegro made this choice based on financial considerations, opting to allocate the budget originally intended for Eurovision toward purchasing new vehicles for the local national broadcaster, RTCG, staff. A secondary reason – poor results – was coupled with consecutive failures to qualify for the final in previous years. Montenegro decided to return after a two-year absence, sending Vladana to represent the nation with the song “Breathe”, ultimately finishing 17th out of 18 countries in the second semi-final.
The following year, Montenegro did it again and sat out of the competition once more, this time primarily due to financial difficulties. The country decided to return for Eurovision 2025, selecting Nina Žižić to represent Montenegro with the song “Dobrodošli” (in English: “Welcome”), and finished in last place in the second semi-final.
Another country that failed upon its return following a withdrawal is Russia. Although Russia has since been excluded and no longer participates in Eurovision, during the time it did take part, the nation had competed continuously since 2000 before dramatically withdrawing from Eurovision 2017, which took place in Ukraine. Consequently, Russia intended to send the Russian singer Yulia Samoylova to represent the country that year. However, Ukraine refused to allow the singer entry due to her illegal performance in Crimea, an action perceived by Ukraine as a political provocation. The following year, Russia decided it wished to return to the competition and send the same singer, regardless of the host country. She ultimately crashed out at Eurovision 2018 in Lisbon, Portugal, finishing 15th out of 18 in the second semi-final with the song “I won’t break”.
Does a Long-Term Absence Pay Off?
Alongside countries that withdraw and return within a short span of one, two, or three years, several nations have decided to rejoin after extensive absences. This often creates a sense of anticipation and nostalgia among the audience, who tend to get excited about the return of countries that dropped under the radar, ultimately generating significant media hype due to their surprising and unexpected comebacks.
Luxembourg, which was absent from the contest for 30 years, stunned Eurovision fans by excitedly announcing its return for Eurovision 2024, having last participated in 1993. Luxembourg brought back a wave of adoration and excitement among the fandom when Tali Golergant was selected to represent the nation after its long hiatus, performing the song “Fighter” and achieving 13th place in the Grand Final.
Another example comes straight from Italy, which also returned to compete after a long period outside the Eurovision borders. Italy initially decided to withdraw in 1998 due to a lack of public interest and a sharp decline in the contest’s television ratings within the country. In a major shift for Eurovision 2011, Italy decided to return following prolonged pressure from the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), which wanted to bring the major nation back into the fold, combined with a change in the local selection format that reignited financial and public interest. Consequently, Italy decided to send Italian singer Raphael Gualazzi with the song “Madness of love” to the 2011 contest in Düsseldorf, Germany, leaving the audience in shock as he achieved a spectacular second-place finish, coming incredibly close to capturing a coveted victory for Italy.
Therefore, if a favorite country is considering a withdrawal this year, fans should not despair – it could very well be the first step on the path toward lifting the coveted trophy and claiming the ultimate title.
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Nicole Postelnik is a reporter and commentator specializing in the Eurovision Song Contest. She has been following the competition since 2015, and since then, her love for Eurovision has grown stronger year after year.
