Finland leads Eurovision 2026 odds after rehearsals in Vienna, while Sweden drops and Noam Bettan holds sixth place for Israel.
The second round of rehearsals for Eurovision 2026, held on stage in Vienna, Austria, has concluded. Following the latest footage from the arena, the betting markets have been updated with the most comprehensive data available. The past few days have seen dramatic shifts in the national rankings, with several countries experiencing momentum changes that could impact their chances of qualifying for the Grand Final.
Current Leaders in the Betting Odds
Currently leading the odds is Finland with the song “Liekinheitin” (in English: “Flamethrower”), performed by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen. They have emerged as the clear favorites to win with a 38% probability. This figure is remarkably close to the 39% winning chance held by Sweden at this stage last year. As the first semi-final approaches, the Finnish entry continues to strengthen its position. The gap widened significantly following their second rehearsal clip, bolstered by the report that Lampenius has been permitted to play the violin live during the performance.
In second place is Greece with “Ferto” (in English: “Bring it”) performed by Achilleas. The entry has weakened slightly, dropping from 14% to 13% winning odds, but remains a strong contender following the reveal of the second rehearsal footage. While Achilleas maintains his ranking, the distance between him and Finland has grown.
Denmark holds the third position with “Før vi går hjem” (in English: “Before we go home”) by Søren Torpegaard Lund, currently sitting at a 11% chance of winning. While he remains stable in third place, the Danish entry has lost some momentum following the release of his second rehearsal video.
Major Shifts Following Rehearsal Clips
Beyond the top three, several countries have seen notable changes in their market standing:
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Albania has recorded the most impressive surge, jumping from 24th place at the start of May to 18th place today.
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Croatia and the United Kingdom are climbing slightly in the rankings.
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Malta is now positioned in seventh place with a 3% chance of winning, a significant rise from its 11th-place ranking earlier this month.
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Sweden is experiencing an unprecedented collapse in the betting markets, dropping to 10th place after maintaining a stable position at 7th for a long period.
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Bulgaria, Moldova, and Norway have all seen slight declines in their recent standings.
Lessons from Previous Eurovision Betting Trends
Data from the previous contest highlights that while betting tables often predict general trends, surprises are frequent:
- Belgium, which failed to qualify for the Grand Final, was ranked 6th in the odds.
- Greece, which finished 6th in the Grand Final, was ranked 19th in the odds.
- Cyprus, which did not qualify for the final, was ranked 11th in the odds.
These statistics demonstrate that while odds are a strong indicator, countries can still exceed or fall short of expectations. Rankings remain fluid, and every scenario is possible as the industry looks toward the Grand Final of Eurovision 2026.
Semi-Final Qualification Projections
Current betting data also provides insight into which nations are most likely to advance from the semi-finals.
First Semi-Final:
- Finland – 97%
- Greece – 97%
- Sweden – 96%
- Israel – 96%
- Croatia – 90%
- Moldova – 89%
- Serbia – 78%
- Lithuania – 69%
- Poland – 56%
- Montenegro – 52%
11. Portugal – 47%
12. Estonia – 43%
13. Belgium – 37%
14. Georgia – 35%
15. San Marino – 20%
Second Semi-Final:
- Australia – 95%
- Denmark – 94%
- Ukraine – 91%
- Romania – 90%
- Cyprus – 80%
- Malta – 79%
- Bulgaria – 78%
- Albania – 72%
- Norway – 71%
- Czechia – 71%
11. Latvia – 46%
12. Switzerland – 44%
13. Armenia – 41%
14. Luxembourg – 35%
15. Azerbaijan – 11%
Eurovision 2026: The 70th Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Austria, following the country’s third historic win with the song “Wasted Love” performed by JJ. This will be the third time the contest is hosted in Austria, after 1967 and 2015.
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Roie is a journalist, content creator, and commentator specializing in the Eurovision Song Contest. His extensive knowledge and in-depth familiarity with the Eurovision world are reflected in every article, ensuring reliable, professional, and up-to-date content.
