Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen lead Eurovision 2026 odds with 43%, followed by Delta Goodrem and Achilleas as the final approaches.
The two semi-finals for Eurovision 2026, held in Vienna, Austria, are now behind us, and we bring you the most updated and comprehensive betting table as of today. Dramatic and surprising changes have been recorded in the national rankings over the last 24 hours. It appears the performances in the semi-finals have led to significant shifts, potentially signaling a new favorite for the trophy.
Current Leaders in the Betting Odds
First Place: Finland, with the song “Liekinheitin” (in English: “Flamethrower”) performed by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen, is emerging as the clear favorite to win with a 43% chance. This figure is higher than the winning probability of Sweden (42%) which led the pack last year. A day before the Grand Final, the Finnish entry continues to strengthen, marking itself as a favorite with a large gap over other nations. Finland increased its lead after qualifying for the final, and again following the announcement of the qualifiers from the second semi-final. Whether this data definitively guarantees a victory remains to be seen; we will analyze similar cases from previous years below.
Second Place: Australia, with “Eclipse” by Delta Goodrem, has surged directly into the second spot with a 15% winning chances following the second semi-final. Delta, who maintained a position in the top five throughout the season, was unable to climb significantly higher until the reveal of her full performance. However, the gap between her and the Finnish entry in first place remains substantial. Is this the ideal position for a victory? Read on to discover which country won while betting odds predicted a second-place finish.
Third Place: Greece, with “Ferto” (in English: “Bring It”) by Achilleas, has weakened and remains with an 8% chance of winning, compared to its previous 13%. As a result, the artist was forced to vacate the second-place position in favor of Australia. While the singer maintains a spot in the top three, there are questions regarding whether recent reports of medical issues could impact his performance in the Grand Final on Saturday.
Major Shifts Following the Semi-Finals
Beyond the top three, several countries have seen notable changes in their market standing:
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Romania is currently positioned in fifth place with a 5% winning probability. This follows the revelation of the full performance in the second semi-final and the announcement that the entry will perform as song number 24 in the Grand Final.
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Meanwhile, France is experiencing a collapse not seen in recent years, dropping to 9th place in the table after a long period of stability in the second-place spot.
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Sweden continues to slide toward 15th place. Despite maintaining a top 10 position for a long period, the entry lost momentum and weakened after the performance in the first semi-final. Reports that Felicia has lost her voice and is attempting to recover before the Grand Final on Saturday have also not helped her standing in the odds.
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Cyprus, which held a stable position in the top 10 throughout the season, has dived to 16th place. This follows a very unimpressive performance in the second semi-final, which nonetheless did not prevent the entry from qualifying for the Saturday final.
Lessons from Previous Eurovision Betting Trends
How did the betting table look last year, one day before the Grand Final?
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Austria: Ranked second in the odds – Finished in 1st place.
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France: Ranked third in the odds – Finished in 7th place.
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The Israeli entry: Ranked sixth in the odds – Finished in 2nd place.
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The Netherlands: Ranked fourth in the odds – Finished in 12th place.
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Sweden: Ranked first in the odds (with 42% probability) – Finished in 4th place.
Surprises in Last Year’s Betting Table:
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Belgium: Ranked 6th in the odds – Failed to qualify for the Grand Final.
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Cyprus: Ranked 11th in the odds – Failed to qualify for the Grand Final.
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Greece: Ranked 19th in the odds – Finished in 6th place in the Grand Final.
These statistics demonstrate that while odds are a strong indicator, countries can still exceed or fall short of expectations. Rankings remain fluid, and every scenario is possible as the industry looks toward the Grand Final of Eurovision 2026.
Eurovision 2026: The 70th Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Austria, following the country’s third historic win with the song “Wasted Love” performed by JJ. This will be the third time the contest is hosted in Austria, after 1967 and 2015.
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Roie is a journalist, content creator, and commentator specializing in the Eurovision Song Contest. His extensive knowledge and in-depth familiarity with the Eurovision world are reflected in every article, ensuring reliable, professional, and up-to-date content.
