Finland’s Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen lead Eurovision 2026 odds. ORF prepares for the Grand Final in Vienna as qualifying chances shift.
As the second round of rehearsals for Eurovision 2026 in Vienna, Austria, continues, the latest and most comprehensive betting tables have been released. Recent days have seen dramatic shifts in country rankings, and the upcoming rehearsals are expected to further influence trends and potentially alter the landscape entirely.
Current Leaders in the Betting Odds
In first place: Finland with the song “Liekinheitin” (in English: “Flamethrower”), performed by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen. The entry is emerging as the clear favorite to win with a 33% chance. This figure is lower than the 39% winning probability held by Sweden at this stage last year, suggesting that while there is a frontrunner, the competition remains open. Finland increased its lead following the release of footage from its second rehearsal, bolstered by the news that Lampenius has been permitted to play the violin live during the performance.
In second place: Greece with “Ferto” (in English: “Bring it”) by Akylas. The entry holds a 14% chance of winning after strengthening its position just before rehearsals began. While Achilleas maintains his rank, the gap between Greece and the top spot has widened.
In third place: Denmark with “Før vi går hjem” (in English: “Before we go home”) by Søren Torpegaard Lund. With an 11% winning probability, Lund remains stable in third place and is closing the gap with second place following the reveal of his rehearsal photos.
Lessons from Previous Eurovision Betting Trends
Data from the previous contest highlights that while betting tables often predict general trends, surprises are frequent:
- Belgium, which failed to qualify for the Grand Final, was ranked 6th in the odds.
- Greece, which finished 6th in the Grand Final, was ranked 19th in the odds.
- Cyprus, which did not qualify for the final, was ranked 11th in the odds.
These statistics demonstrate that while odds are a strong indicator, countries can still exceed or fall short of expectations. Rankings remain fluid, and every scenario is possible as the industry looks toward the Grand Final of Eurovision 2026.
Semi-Final Qualification Projections
Current betting data also provides insight into which nations are most likely to advance from the semi-finals.
First Semi-Final:
- Finland – 96%
- Greece – 96%
- Sweden – 95%
- Israel – 95%
- Moldova – 88%
- Croatia – 85%
- Serbia – 77%
- Lithuania – 70%
- Montenegro – 60%
- Estonia – 47%
11. Poland – 47%
12. Portugal – 46%
13. Georgia – 42%
14. Belgium – 37%
15. San Marino – 20%
Second Semi-Final:
- Australia – 94%
- Denmark – 94%
- Ukraine – 92%
- Romania – 88%
- Cyprus – 81%
- Malta – 79%
- Bulgaria – 78%
- Norway – 73%
- Czechia – 70%
- Albania – 69%
11. Switzerland – 47%
12. Latvia – 45%
13. Armenia – 43%
14. Luxembourg – 36%
15. Azerbaijan – 11%
Eurovision 2026: The 70th Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Austria, following the country’s third historic win with the song “Wasted Love” performed by JJ. This will be the third time the contest is hosted in Austria, after 1967 and 2015.
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Maor Heumann has been writing about the Eurovision Song Contest and following it for over three decades. He has attended five contests and has found something to appreciate in almost every possible musical genre — from the sugary pop entries that finish last in the semi-finals to the quirky avant-garde pieces that even the competition’s juries struggled to connect with. He usually prefers original languages and songs with depth over Swedish-produced English clones — though he doesn’t promise to stick to that rule.
He grew up on the kibbutz of Sara’le Sharon, who instilled in him a love for music and created his first connection to the contest back in 1993 — before most of the current editorial team was even born.
