As Eurovision 2027 approaches, previous shocks by Dara and KAJ raise the question: Are EBU data and betting odds can no longer be trusted?
As the Eurovision Song Contest began gaining massive momentum online and expanding into semi-finals, a peculiar phenomenon emerged: betting odds. Every year, they attempt to predict which country will lift the trophy next, calculating each song’s winning probability down to a single percentage point. For some reason, the phrase “the table doesn’t lie” became an unwritten law among fans. However, over the past three years, something in this machine has completely broken. Trust has shattered – and rightly so. It is time to dive into the most embarrassing data from betting websites and discover how the great bluff of recent years has made a mockery of statistics as the musical landscape looks ahead to Eurovision 2027.
Does the mere existence of winning percentages and forecast rankings determine the actual winner, or is it a mechanism that actually ruins the viewing experience? A high ranking creates a psychological herd effect, where neutral viewers tend to align with the country highlighted in green, feeling that victory is already in the bag. On the other hand, data proves that a distinct “anti-herd” effect has been developing among fans in recent years: people are developing an internal resistance to the rigged game the table tries to sell them, defiantly voting the opposite way for songs that captured their hearts in real time.
This blindness is intensified because cultural betting is illegal in many countries, including Israel. The numbers seen on screen do not reflect the opinion of the entire continent – but only the purchasing power of those permitted to gamble. The algorithm tends to grant automatic immunity and preferential treatment to traditionally strong countries like Ukraine, Italy, and Sweden. Statistically, Israel also stars, having achieved an impressive record of four Top 5 placements in the last four years. While the funding countries (the Big 5) and the Nordic nations receive inflated rankings due to immense online support, the Balkan, Caucasus, and Eastern European nations get a cold shoulder, condemned to the bottom until their songs are selected, which is when they finally get a chance to shine.
Does the Table Really Not Lie? Only When the Leader Is Obvious
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the odds have managed to predict only two winners in six years, and even that only occurred when the outcome was completely expected. In 2022, Ukraine‘s victory with 61% reflected news headlines rather than a statistical achievement, and in 2023, the legendary name of Loreen caused bettors to play it safe. The real crisis began when the EBU shifted the semi-finals to a 100% televoting system, leading to a systemic shock for betting agencies, who completely missed the dramatic dynamics developing within the jury rooms ahead of the grand final.
Recent Data: A Massive Crack in Fan Trust
The 2024 collapse was the opening shot of the crisis. The odds, which had supported Switzerland for a significant period, crowned Croatia at the moment of truth with a 52% winning probability, with Israel in second place at 13% and Switzerland closing the podium with just a 6% chance of winning. At the moment of truth, the jury went for Switzerland, erasing Croatia’s inflated percentages and sending the trophy to the country that the public had otherwise bypassed in the top spot.
In 2025, the psychological blindness worsened when Sweden’s Mans Zelmerlow announced his participation, and the odds automatically duplicated the Loreen formula before the first note was even heard. The singer lost in the local national selection to the band KAJ, who had been ranked at the bottom of the Melodifestivalen odds before the show even aired. Yet, bettors refused to wake up and left the inflated percentages as an inheritance for the Swedish flag.
The band surged to a 40% winning probability after the semi-final, peaking at 49% during the grand final broadcast. Nearly half of the continent’s statistical chances were handed to a single song just because of the flag attached to it – only for it to crash to fourth place, while Austria, second in the odds with a 22% chance of winning and a jury favorite, took the trophy. The true blindness was exposed by the actual public favorites who closed the podium: the Israeli entry achieved an impressive second place despite being ranked only seventh in the odds, and Estonia snatched third place while ranked only fifth in the odds. From the public’s perspective – another wasted victory.
Eurovision 2026 turned the odds and their dubious reputation into a total crisis of trust, as the table blindly pushed Finland and the song “Liekinheitin” (in English: “Flamethrower”) to a 44% winning probability at the peak of the grand final, sparking a wave of rumors regarding alleged favors, conspiracies, and fixed results in the running order. While the herd chased Finland’s percentages, the Bulgarian artist, Dara, sneaked up from 14th place in the odds, tore up the stage in the semi-final, skyrocketed to third place in the betting standings, and took the trophy in both segments, while the Finnish entry was pushed down to sixth place. The top five – which included Bulgaria, Israel (5th in odds), Romania (6th), Australia (2nd), and Italy (8th) – completely trampled the forecasts, as well as Greece, who collapsed from fourth in the odds to 10th place overall, after also finishing a low 7th in the semi-final.
The big question that must remain in readers’ minds is whether it is time to completely let go of this blind obsession with graphs? The team behind Dara proved to the world that you cannot predict the future of art and live performance based on a frozen algorithm that feeds on digital noise. It is time to stop blindly following the herd, close the wallets, and reclaim the element of surprise and pure enjoyment of the music on stage. Think about it – the pleasure is all mine.
DARA – Who Are You?
DARA, whose full name is Darina Nikolaeva Yotova, is one of the most prominent pop singers of her generation in Bulgaria. She rose to public attention in late 2015 after reaching the final of the Bulgarian version of The X Factor. Since then, she has established herself as a leading figure in the national pop scene.
She launched her solo career in 2016 with the hit “K’vo ne chu“, which topped the Bulgarian charts and later received an international English-language version titled “Onto You“. In the years that followed, she released a series of successful singles, appeared on major television productions such as the Bulgarian edition of “Dancing with the Stars”, and became widely recognized beyond music audiences.
Since 2021, she has served as a mentor on The Voice of Bulgaria, where she has guided contestants to victory on two occasions. Now, she is set to take the international stage as she represents Bulgaria at Eurovision 2026 with her entry, “Bangaranga”.
Bulgaria in Eurovision 2026
“Bangaranga” is the song that performed by the singer DARA, which represented Bulgaria in Vienna, Austria. DARA won the contest and got 516 points in the final. The song was written and composed by Dimitris Kontopoulos and Cristian Tarcea. While this is the performer’s first Eurovision entry, it marks the 15th song in the contest for composer Dimitris Kontopoulos. The song is performed entirely in English.
Eurovision 2026: This was Bulgaria’s 15th participation in the Eurovision Song Contest. Bulgaria joined the competition in 2005 and achieved its best result in Eurovision 2026 when the singer Dara finished in first place with the song “Bangaranga”.
Eurovision 2026: The 70th Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Austria, following the country’s third historic win with the song “Wasted Love” performed by JJ. This will be the third time the contest is hosted in Austria, after 1967 and 2015.
Email: [email protected]
Phone: +972-50-9441919
Ilay Gaist is a leading Israeli content creator and writer specializing in the Eurovision Song Contest. He is a well-known commentator with extensive expertise in the contest’s history, rules, and dynamics. His passion for Eurovision drives him to deliver rich, professional, and innovative content to his audience.
Ilay holds a bachelor’s degree in Arabic and has a multilingual background. He also engages in cultural research, with a particular focus on global culinary traditions and the evolution of local cuisines around the world.
